Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-11-17 00:00:00+00:00 80672.072051 85154.775593 89634.127696 94442.751077 99455.435265 104523.502234 110031.549526
2024-11-24 00:00:00+00:00 73589.386784 80473.762747 87543.192744 95335.022162 103671.673304 112313.452009 121938.243118
2024-12-01 00:00:00+00:00 68408.829257 76938.567429 85888.119944 95957.079182 106948.340832 118560.647642 131734.792048
2024-12-08 00:00:00+00:00 64031.666790 73751.431244 84136.462328 96022.954785 109215.527238 123372.757416 139677.170653
2024-12-15 00:00:00+00:00 61243.222592 72007.443311 83689.588791 97258.346592 112531.393019 129137.697364 148503.978752
2024-12-22 00:00:00+00:00 57894.871061 69389.365411 82046.307001 96947.344886 113937.297671 132632.027498 154682.263387
2024-12-29 00:00:00+00:00 56089.773197 68379.308532 82086.165340 98415.823078 117244.845917 138178.529244 163112.036891
2025-01-05 00:00:00+00:00 54166.179239 67105.685531 81712.845377 99309.644362 119813.157459 142828.108809 170488.852051
2025-01-12 00:00:00+00:00 51954.549119 65377.351254 80707.874859 99374.333453 121342.657167 146227.593843 176392.086156
2025-01-19 00:00:00+00:00 49819.538684 63638.101804 79598.115659 99229.911524 122554.443595 149204.001107 181767.728623
2025-01-26 00:00:00+00:00 48904.717623 63307.069614 80106.844590 100957.788524 125937.621757 154693.716532 190077.557187
2025-02-02 00:00:00+00:00 48047.709507 62995.636582 80597.367396 102630.660483 129235.462855 160079.866166 198282.959554
2025-02-09 00:00:00+00:00 46676.034371 62025.027825 80279.462207 103334.498880 131402.184166 164182.691418 205060.060742
2025-02-16 00:00:00+00:00 44988.738437 60604.844529 79364.862672 103272.569662 132618.943942 167145.853661 210493.071200
2025-02-23 00:00:00+00:00 43657.407455 59579.536336 78890.530440 103710.147223 134412.417451 170784.054146 216736.103594
2025-03-02 00:00:00+00:00 42206.570870 58349.015717 78113.651209 103730.455442 135661.217547 173744.603558 222157.042654
2025-03-09 00:00:00+00:00 41450.634447 57976.406101 78383.731434 105033.298122 138478.145549 178607.893004 229901.721373
2025-03-16 00:00:00+00:00 39983.199309 56632.947166 77383.162385 104700.120629 139232.721201 180933.836558 234546.982288
2025-03-23 00:00:00+00:00 39450.736882 56488.492544 77890.590054 106261.064750 142348.560474 186165.246615 242776.628950
2025-03-30 00:00:00+00:00 38679.532553 56000.186554 77933.017251 107211.235252 144687.309726 190440.059616 249846.150253
2025-04-06 00:00:00+00:00 37567.188652 55021.902982 77310.208947 107279.980339 145890.624156 193295.840485 255161.837298
2025-04-13 00:00:00+00:00 36414.565153 53954.012301 76538.350676 107126.436495 146787.516194 195755.244176 259981.932330
2025-04-20 00:00:00+00:00 36138.146252 54061.361010 77300.194717 108963.199347 150235.713969 201427.358815 268847.645857